CALL US (888)892-6572
The stage is set for the 2014 Division Series: The Kansas City Royals will face the Baltimore Orioles in the American League and the San Francisco Giants will take on the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League. Of the four contenders, only the SF Giants have a top 10 payroll.* Ten teams made the playoffs and half of them did not have top 10 payrolls (the other four in the top 10 were the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels). Based on the numbers, the top paying Los Angeles Dodgers should have faced the New York Yankees in the World Series. Instead, the $241 million Dodger payroll was ousted in the NL Division Series and the $203 million Yankee payroll failed to make the postseason.
The 2014 season is not an anomaly by any stretch. In the past 14 seasons, the World Series winner had a top 10 payroll 8 times and the #1 payroll won the whole thing twice (New York Yankees in 2000 and 2009). So paying the top salaries in the big leagues nets a championship around 13% of the time. So what explains victories by low paying teams with fractional salaries of major market teams? How do the 2003 Florida Marlins (now Miami Marlins) with a $40 million payroll beat a New York Yankee squad with a $140 million payroll? How does a 2010 Texas Ranger squad with a $55 million payroll advance past the Yankee $206 million payroll?
The answer seems to fall in the hands of youth. The 2003 Marlins found talent in a young pitcher named Josh Beckett who found his groove on the biggest stage. The future Cy Young winer made $1.7 million that year – he would go on to make as much as $17 million. CJ Wilson powered the Texas Rangers in 2010 and made $3.1 million. He would go on to make $16 million with the 2014 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim where he would fail to make it out of the first inning of the ALDS game 3.
Youth and talent seem to emerge when the spotlight is shining brightest. Take the Nationals Bryce Harper. His post-season batting average increased by 20 points and his home-run production exploded from one every 7+ games to more than one per game! He makes $900,000. On the other side of the coin, you have a guy like Clayton Kershaw who will make $30 million per year and was probably the best pitcher during the regular season. He hasn’t won a postseason game in his career.
Money, although not dispositive, seems to have an impact on the ability of talent. And the pressure that comes with money can potentially tip the wrong way. As pitcher Barry Zito had an ERA of 2.75 coupled with 23 wins and just 5 losses in 2002, the year he made $295,000. HE would go on to make as much as $20 million and would never see an ERA under 4.00 ever again.
Baseball is probably the most individual of all the team sports. And while a batter stands on his own at the plate, the team chemistry seems to have an ever lasting presence throughout the game. Easy going teams that lack drama seem to persevere. The 2004 Red Sox had the #2 salary in MLB. But they were the self proclaimed “idiots” and somehow found a way to relieve the pressure of the moment when they were down 3-0 to the Yanks. Despite big salaries, the team seemed to lack big heads. They were a team when it counted and proved it as they would go on to win four in a row against the Yanks and another 4 to sweep the Cardinals.
So how will the 2014 season end? The statistics point to the San Francisco Giants. But we like the Orioles – because like us, they offer the best bang for the buck! Looking forward to another extraordinary post season.
* Source: USA Today at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2014/team/all/
